It’s been five (5) long years since the last time Illinois Fighting Illini football has touched a postseason bowl game. 82 out of 130 FBS teams make a postseason bowl game, effectively meaning that Illinois has been in the bottom 50 of the FBS. Furthermore, only two other Power Five conference teams, Kansas and Oregon State, have had a postseason bowl drought for as long as Illinois has, effectively meaning that Illinois has been one of the absolute worst Power Five football teams.

This troubling information begs the question Illini football fans have wondered since Lovie Smith was hired as head coach three years ago. ‘Is this the year?’ Well, yes and no. Yes, this is Illinois’s best chance to make a bowl game in the Lovie era. No, it’s not necessary for the Illini to make one for Lovie to keep his job.

It won’t be incredibly hard to improve on last season. Antithetical to the smashmouth defensive style that made Lovie Smith a head coach in the NFL, the 2018 Illini defense was porous and weak to put it kindly, placing 124th out of 130 FBS teams in overall team defense according to sports-reference.com’s rankings. Avoiding gargantuan losses, such as last year’s home defeats to Iowa (63-0 on senior day, probably the worst game of football I have ever seen) and Purdue (46-7, on homecoming weekend) will also keep Lovie’s proverbial hot seat fairly cool. 

Speaking to media at the annual Illinois football media day, Lovie acknowledged his team’s lack of defensive bite compared to the teams he coached in the NFL. “I used to be known for (creating takeaways/turnovers), that used to be my background. We have to be able to make those plays. It’s not enough to stop the opponent or hit them hard. We have to get the ball back to score, and we haven’t done that enough.”

A blow to the defense, both on and off the field, is the loss of All-Big Ten defensive lineman Bobby Roundtree this season. Roundtree suffered an awful spinal injury while swimming this offseason, and has been in hospital care since. He led the Illini in both sacks (7 ½) and tackles for loss (12 ½) last season. 

‘‘We will miss an outstanding man and outstanding football player, an outstanding leader, just everything about Bobby Roundtree,’’ head coach Lovie Smith said at media day. ‘‘We’ll miss him. But the way our team can honor him is with its play. He’ll always be involved and be close this year.’’

Excitement is growing on the other side of the football. The Illinois offense was putrid if not just flat out dull in 2017, ranking 127th overall in the FBS and averaging a measly 15 points per game. They jumped 34 spots in that ranking last season, and averaged 26 points per game. If the Illini defense last season could have actually managed to tackle a few guys, they might have even gone to a bowl game. 

Joining that improving offense this season will be two things the Illini have been lacking in recent years: an experienced quarterback and a highly touted quarterback recruit. Brandon Peters, a quarterback who transferred from perennial football power/relevant force Michigan, brings legit experience to the depth chart. Isaiah Williams, a highly sought-after recruit from Trinity Catholic in St. Louis, is already being pegged to be the star Illinois has desperately craved.

But who starts this season? One can assume that Lovie and his staff didn’t bring in Brandon Peters to sit on the bench as Isaiah Williams gets his footing on the turf in Champaign, so expect the opposite. Peters should be starting, allowing Williams to learn from the sidelines, and whenever the opportunity comes, Williams can relieve Peters if need be and take snaps for himself and show the coaching staff what he really brings to the Illini. 

Brandon Peters isn’t the only transfer to bolster the Illini on the offensive side of the ball. Two wide receivers are coming from another perennial football power/relevant force in USC, Trevon Sidney and Josh Imatorbhebhe. Both were highly touted coming out of high school and give Peters two reliable targets, and give the team more options. Last year, Offensive Coordinator Rod Smith’s offense relied heavily on the running backs and mobile quarterbacks who could run. This year’s offense has threats all over the field.

Simply put, the Illini will be as good as their defense allows them to be. New recruits and more experience will help the defense, but losing Bobby Roundtree is a big blow to the defensive front. If the defense can simply not let games get out of hand, the offense might have the firepower to keep the Illini alive in any contest this season. 

“If you ask me if I think we’re ready to compete and contend, absolutely.” Lovie Smith quipped at media day. He has faith in the progress they’ve made, but acknowledges there’s work to be done. “We have to be better, coaching staff wise, bringing in better players, facilities and all that. But we’re excited to see the progression.”

A fairly relaxing non-conference schedule for the Illini against Akron, UConn, and Eastern Michigan *should* give the Illini a 3-0 start to the season, meaning a bowl game would only be 3 wins out of 9 games away. Seems doable! However, if they struggle in these non-conference games, the conference schedule will be an uphill battle. Everyone that they beat, and everyone that beat them, is better this season. 

Ultimately, what Illinois fans and onlookers should be hoping for is steady, marked improvements to how Lovie Smith’s Illini play football.  Lovie doesn’t need to make a bowl game to keep his job if he can prove to the fanbase and most importantly Illinois Athletic Director Josh Whitman that the team is on the upswing. Sure, bowl games are nice, a big television audience watching the (checks Google) Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl and a check for a few million dollars that the players will never see, but simple continued improvements would be considered a success for an Illini football team that hasn’t seen stability in ages.